Measure RTM: Connect Bay Area Transit Initiative

SPUR's Recommendation

The potential collapse of transit services poses a serious threat to the many people who rely on transit to access jobs, medical appointments, and groceries. Vulnerable groups — including people with disabilities, older adults, students, and low-income workers — would bear the brunt of service cuts. SPUR believes maintaining reliable transit funding outweighs concerns about the regressive nature of a sales tax.

Transit is also vital for the region’s economy: half of all transit trips are work-related, and transit supports access to job opportunities. Robust service, especially in the evenings, supports small businesses and major events. Without it, traffic congestion will worsen, raising transportation costs for everyone and negatively impacting quality of life and the region’s economy.

BART, Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit account for more than 80% of transit trips in the region. Cutting their services would not only exacerbate traffic but also significantly increase air and climate pollution, jeopardizing environmental progress.

What Prop. RTM Would Do

Note: SPUR is a sponsor of Proposition RTM.

Proposition RTM is a 14-year, 5-county sales tax that would raise approximately $1 billion per year to preserve transit service. In addition to preventing cuts to BART, Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit, the measure would raise revenue for regional rider-focused programs that make transit more seamless and easy to use. Most counties would also receive funding for local transit improvements and road maintenance. The tax rate would be 0.5% in Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, and San Mateo and 1% in San Francisco. The varied rates reflect differences in each county’s tax base and use of regional transit services.

• San Francisco: All revenues would fund the city’s share of regional transit services and provide support for Muni.
• Alameda: Most revenues would support and sustain regional transit operations, with $15.6 million each year for use on other local bus service and transit priorities.
• Contra Costa: Most funds would support and sustain regional transit operations, with $42.3 million each year for local bus service and transit priorities.
• Santa Clara: After meeting the contribution to regional transit services, the county would have approximately $264 million per year for local transportation priorities.
• San Mateo: After meeting the contribution to regional services, the county would have approximately $50 million annually for local transportation priorities.

Five percent of the revenues generated from the measure would fund its administration and rider-focused improvements such as discounted and coordinated fares, wayfinding, and accessibility improvements that make transit more seamless.

The measure includes strict oversight and transparency requirements:

• Independent financial reviews of BART, Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit, with requirements to implement cost-saving recommendations in order to receive funds
• Citizen oversight of spending and performance.
• County-level oversight to ensure service standards are applied fairly, with authority to withhold funds for noncompliance.

State legislation authorized the measure, and a citizen initiative placed it on the ballot. It requires a simple majority (50% plus one vote) to pass.

The Backstory

Facing a fiscal cliff, BART, Caltrain, Muni, and AC Transit could undertake widespread service cuts beginning as soon as January 2027. Should Prop. RTM fail, the agencies have identified the following cuts:

• Caltrain: To close a $75 million deficit, close up to 10 stations, eliminate weekend service, reduce frequency to hourly, end service by 9 p.m., and potentially close corridor segments.
• BART: To close a $376 million deficit, cut more than 60% of service, reduce service to three primary lines with limited peak service on two others, and end service by 9 p.m. Longer-term cuts could include closing up to 15 stations and potentially the entire system.
• Muni: To close a $322 million deficit, eliminate nearly one-quarter of routes, end service after 9 p.m., and cut frequency on Metro, Rapid, and frequent routes by half.
• AC Transit: To address a $200 million four-year deficit, cut service by 16%, eliminate routes, reduce service hours and frequency (including transbay service), and leave only 13 of 74 lines unchanged.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bay Area’s largest transit systems operated near capacity, collecting a significant share of operational funding from fares, parking revenues, and other local sources tied to the economy’s health. This model made them more self-sufficient compared with other agencies nationwide, but it also made them vulnerable to pandemic-related disruptions. With a large share of Bay Area jobs now remote, ridership and revenues are recovering more slowly than in other major metropolitan regions. Six years post-pandemic, riders have returned to transit, but they ride less frequently.

When federal and state COVID-relief funds are exhausted at the end of this year, BART, Caltrain, Muni, and AC Transit will face annual deficits of 25% to 45% of their operating budgets. They have been preparing for this fiscal crisis by reducing costs and stretching public funds. An independent review of AC Transit, BART, Caltrain and SF Muni found that they have collectively saved $1 billion in operating expenses in the last five years through various cost-saving actions.

Some have suggested shifting federal funds for capital projects (i.e., building new transit) to fill the operations gap. However, existing funding sources would still be insufficient to meet transit’s operating needs, even under the most optimistic scenarios. The funds available pale in comparison to the deficits, and most capital funding can’t be repurposed for operations due to legal requirements. In short, transit agencies cannot reallocate funds.

Additionally, transit, particularly rail, has high fixed costs. Cutting service doesn’t yield commensurate savings. Instead, it creates a downward spiral of fewer riders and, therefore, lower revenues, highlighting the need for new revenue.

Previous attempts to explore alternative revenue sources for Bay Area transit (including Senate Bill 532 and Senate Bill 1031) lacked political support.

Prop. RTM was a regional solution developed with the state legislature, elected county officials, and other stakeholders to ensure consensus on fair revenue distribution that supports transit and benefits residents in all five counties. The legislature authorized the measure by a two-thirds vote, and a citizen signature-gathering initiative placed it on the ballot. It requires a simple majority (50% plus one vote) to pass.

Equity Impacts

As a flat sales tax, Prop. RTM is regressive, meaning it takes a larger percentage of income from low-income households. However, failing to implement this measure would trigger devastating service cuts that will land hardest on those with the fewest resources, particularly people with disabilities, older adults, youth, and people with low incomes for whom transit is not optional.

Failing to implement this measure could create significant financial burdens for Bay Area residents, particularly transit riders, who are more likely to be low-income than the general population. SPUR estimates that transit riders who shift some trips to driving due to service cuts would spend $3,280 more in fuel, tolls, and parking costs annually, and that does not include the cost of purchasing or insuring a vehicle. SPUR estimates that the cost of the measure for individuals earning up to 80% of the median income is $7 a month or $82 annually, a fraction of the increased cost of transportation if agencies are forced to cut service. Moreover, worsening traffic conditions and air quality would affect everyone, even those who do not use public transit.

Pros

• Prop. RTM would prevent catastrophic service cuts to BART, Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit, the backbone of the Bay Area’s public transit system, which carries more than 1 million trips each weekday and accounts for more than 80% of all transit trips in the region.
• Maintaining robust transit services would enable people with disabilities, older adults, students, and low-income workers to get where they need to go independently, affordably, and with dignity.
• A well-functioning transit system reduces car traffic and emissions, preventing gridlock and protecting climate progress.
• The measure emphasizes financial accountability and requires transit agencies to implement further efficiencies and cost controls to align expenses with available resources.
• It would provide meaningful resources to strengthen regional coordination of schedules and fares and make it easier for more people to use transit.
• It would provide significant funding in San Mateo and Santa Clara County for investments in local transit and transportation improvements.
• By supporting regional mobility, the measure would help ensure the Bay Area remains economically competitive and that residents have access to opportunity.

Con

• The measure would impose a new tax.

Source (https://www.spur.org/voter-guide/2026-11/ba-prop-rtm-regional-transit-sales-tax)

After a successful signature-gathering campaign by Connect Bay Area, the Regional Transit Measure (https://connectbayarea.com/) (RTM) will appear on the November ballots for many Bay Area voters, and Greenbelt Alliance is excited to endorse a YES vote on RTM.

If the Regional Transit Measure passes, the roughly $1 billion in revenue per year will support public transit agencies’ improvements to safety, cleanliness, convenience, seamless integration of transit services, and specific capital projects. The new revenue will be sourced from a 1% sales tax in San Francisco County and a 0.5% sales tax in Santa Clara, San Mateo, Alameda, and Contra Costa counties. 

The measure aims to prevent catastrophic funding cuts that could impact regional public transit as soon as 2027. These major impacts will particularly hurt BART, Muni, AC Transit, and Caltrain, but will have many downstream consequences for our entire region. If we don’t approve it, the Bay Area will lose its transit backbone, making our weekly commutes longer, causing a dramatic increase in pollution, and leaving us with less time to be with our friends and family. 

RTM supports a resilient and sustainable future where our communities are able to use public transit with ease, and we can protect our environment from further greenhouse gas emissions from cars. Please join Greenbelt Alliance, alongside organizations such as 350 Bay Area, SPUR, and Public Advocates, in endorsing the Regional Transit Measure! Vote YES on RTM in November to save the Bay Area’s public transit and fight against climate change.

Additionally, learn more about Proposition H in San Francisco (https://www.greenbelt.org/blog/vote-yes-proposition-h-sf/) to further strengthen the Muni transit system in San Francisco.

Why It Matters

The Bay Area is facing its biggest threat to public transportation in decades. With a looming fiscal cliff, major transit agencies—including BART, Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit—may soon have to make difficult decisions to close stations, reduce frequencies, and shorten hours of operation.

To avert this looming crisis, a coalition of advocates came together to launch the Connect Bay Area (https://connectbayarea.com) campaign. Earlier in May, the campaign announced it collected more than 305,000 signatures to qualify a regional transit funding measure for the November ballot—crushing the minimal threshold of 186,000 required signatures.

Greenbelt Alliance was proud to be part of this grassroots coalition and endorse the Connect Bay Area Campaign. (https://www.greenbelt.org/blog/connect-bay-area-transit/)

How We Got Here

"The Bay Area's public transit is a core pillar of our region's ability to usher in a climate-smart, affordable, and just future. Greenbelt Alliance is excited to be a part of this grassroots coalition to help protect and enhance our public transportation and reduce pollution."

Amanda Brown-Stevens, Executive Director

Funding for transit agencies in the Bay Area relies heavily on fares and local revenue sources, so when the COVID-19 pandemic hit and ridership plunged, a substantial amount of that funding disappeared. For a while, agencies were able to stay afloat due to the federal relief stimulus, but that has quickly dried up, and California has not stepped in to address those deficits. Without yearly State funding and with ridership only slowly recovering to pre-pandemic levels, agencies are not seeing the revenue needed to continue operating at full capacity.

To put this into perspective, here is what will happen in 2027 if we do not pass the transit measure:

Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART)

• Red and Green lines will be phased down to just peak hours in January 2027. The Grey line will close at this time, too. The blue line will close in July 2027.
• 15 stations with the lowest ridership will close, including Millbrae and Warm Springs, by July 2027.
• 70% reduction in train hours and 25% reduction in system miles by July 2027.
• 30% fare increase in January 2027, and a 50% increase in July 2027.
• The agency will face a $355-$385 million budget deficit (30% of the operating budget)
• Without a funding pathway by mid-2028, BART may have to stop all operations. See more details here (https://www.bart.gov/sites/default/files/2026-02/%5BBART%20Board%20Workshop%2002-12-2026%5D%20Presentations.pdf).

SFMTA Muni

• There will be a 50% cut of Muni services
• There will be an elimination of fare discounts and pass programs for youth and seniors
• The agency will face a $322-$398 million budget deficit (25% of the operating budget)

AC Transit

• There will be a nearly 40% cut to services
• The agency will face a $51-$72 million budget deficit (10% of the operating budget)

Caltrain

• The agency will run 1 train per hour and cut all weekend service
• The agency will face a $65-$76 million budget deficit (42% of the operating budget)

These monumental disruptions to operations are direct consequences of the fiscal cliff. However, it does not account for the myriad ramifications down the road for managing traffic, tackling climate change, meeting our housing needs, and ensuring an affordable California for all.

“Fuming” with Greenhouse Gases

With 41% of California’s greenhouse gas emissions (https://coolcalifornia.arb.ca.gov/sustainable_transportation) coming from the transportation sector, losing major parts of our public transit system will allow for even more cars on the road and weaken our ability to fight the climate crisis. Without BART, drivers can expect their commute to extend by 12 more hours per week and see traffic across the Bay Bridge surging by 73%. This means less time with family and friends doing the things we love. 

In the long term, this may lead to worsening climate hazards, including droughts, flooding, and wildfires. More cars will also be a direct threat to our health and well-being, causing more air pollution (https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC4243514/#S24), compromising air quality, and increasing respiratory-related illnesses. By maintaining our public transit system, we can reduce GHG emissions (https://www.sfmta.com/sites/default/files/reports-and-documents/2017/12/12-5-17_item_15_transportation_sector_climate_action_strategy.pdf) and avoid these catastrophic changes to our communities.

Communities Connected to Transit

Three words encapsulate our housing abundance strategy: transit-oriented development (TOD). In the last two decades, many urbanists have turned their attention to creating walkable, affordable, and resilient communities that are well-connected to the places where people work, study, and play. A cornerstone of this vision is built on the idea that we should promote more homes near our public transit corridors.

BART TOD projects like MacArthur Station provide residents access to the vibrant Temescal neighborhood, while allowing easy access to commute to downtown Oakland or San Francisco. Even new project proposals like the Caltrain-adjacent Hillsdale Reimagined (https://www.greenbelt.org/blog/hillsdale-endorsement/) in San Mateo demonstrate the durability of TOD in renovating underutilized buildings and turning them into lively community spaces. 

That is why Greenbelt Alliance co-sponsored Senate Bill 79 (https://www.greenbelt.org/blog/sb79-transit-housing-bill/) in the California legislature, which makes it easier and faster to build homes near public transit. While SB 79 is now law, the risks of public transit’s fiscal cliff diminish the law’s application by making fewer sites viable for TOD upzoning. Other proposed TOD projects funded by transit agencies will likely be reevaluated, too. This could all delay much-needed affordable housing in the Bay Area and worsen the housing crisis.

Saving public transit goes far beyond just our means of commuting. A healthy public transit system reduces traffic, protects us from pollution, reduces GHG emissions, creates resilient neighborhoods, and supports new housing.

This November, vote YES on the Regional Transit Measure.

Source (https://www.greenbelt.org/blog/vote-yes-for-the-regional-transit-measure-rtm/)

NO on regional transit sales tax

This is a sales tax increase of at least one-half percent (1% in San Francisco) in five Bay Area counties (San Francisco, Alameda, Contra Costa, San Mateo, Santa Clara) to fund transit. Critics rightly argue that the longstanding financial and management problems of transit systems in the Bay Area will not be fixed with another tax increase. Beyond that, a higher sales tax burdens people who already pay high sales taxes and are struggling with the high cost of living. This measure, too, is a “citizens’ initiative tax increase” attempting to get through the court-created loophole before HJTA closes it with Proposition 43.

Source (https://www.hjta.org/2026votingguide#Ballot-Measure-Recommendations)

No more additional transit taxes for BART

Source (https://svgop.com/s/SVGOP-2026-Gen-Election-Endorsements.pdf)