SPUR's Recommendation

The potential collapse of transit services poses a serious threat to the many people who rely on transit to access jobs, medical appointments, and groceries. Vulnerable groups — including people with disabilities, older adults, students, and low-income workers — would bear the brunt of service cuts. SPUR believes maintaining reliable transit funding outweighs concerns about the regressive nature of a sales tax.

Transit is also vital for the region’s economy: half of all transit trips are work-related, and transit supports access to job opportunities. Robust service, especially in the evenings, supports small businesses and major events. Without it, traffic congestion will worsen, raising transportation costs for everyone and negatively impacting quality of life and the region’s economy.

BART, Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit account for more than 80% of transit trips in the region. Cutting their services would not only exacerbate traffic but also significantly increase air and climate pollution, jeopardizing environmental progress.

What Prop. RTM Would Do

Note: SPUR is a sponsor of Proposition RTM.

Proposition RTM is a 14-year, 5-county sales tax that would raise approximately $1 billion per year to preserve transit service. In addition to preventing cuts to BART, Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit, the measure would raise revenue for regional rider-focused programs that make transit more seamless and easy to use. Most counties would also receive funding for local transit improvements and road maintenance. The tax rate would be 0.5% in Alameda, Contra Costa, Santa Clara, and San Mateo and 1% in San Francisco. The varied rates reflect differences in each county’s tax base and use of regional transit services.

San Francisco: All revenues would fund the city’s share of regional transit services and provide support for Muni.
Alameda: Most revenues would support and sustain regional transit operations, with $15.6 million each year for use on other local bus service and transit priorities.
Contra Costa: Most funds would support and sustain regional transit operations, with $42.3 million each year for local bus service and transit priorities.
Santa Clara: After meeting the contribution to regional transit services, the county would have approximately $264 million per year for local transportation priorities.
San Mateo: After meeting the contribution to regional services, the county would have approximately $50 million annually for local transportation priorities.

Five percent of the revenues generated from the measure would fund its administration and rider-focused improvements such as discounted and coordinated fares, wayfinding, and accessibility improvements that make transit more seamless.

The measure includes strict oversight and transparency requirements:

Independent financial reviews of BART, Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit, with requirements to implement cost-saving recommendations in order to receive funds
Citizen oversight of spending and performance.
County-level oversight to ensure service standards are applied fairly, with authority to withhold funds for noncompliance.

State legislation authorized the measure, and a citizen initiative placed it on the ballot. It requires a simple majority (50% plus one vote) to pass.

The Backstory

Facing a fiscal cliff, BART, Caltrain, Muni, and AC Transit could undertake widespread service cuts beginning as soon as January 2027. Should Prop. RTM fail, the agencies have identified the following cuts:

Caltrain: To close a $75 million deficit, close up to 10 stations, eliminate weekend service, reduce frequency to hourly, end service by 9 p.m., and potentially close corridor segments.
BART: To close a $376 million deficit, cut more than 60% of service, reduce service to three primary lines with limited peak service on two others, and end service by 9 p.m. Longer-term cuts could include closing up to 15 stations and potentially the entire system.
Muni: To close a $322 million deficit, eliminate nearly one-quarter of routes, end service after 9 p.m., and cut frequency on Metro, Rapid, and frequent routes by half.
AC Transit: To address a $200 million four-year deficit, cut service by 16%, eliminate routes, reduce service hours and frequency (including transbay service), and leave only 13 of 74 lines unchanged.

Before the COVID-19 pandemic, the Bay Area’s largest transit systems operated near capacity, collecting a significant share of operational funding from fares, parking revenues, and other local sources tied to the economy’s health. This model made them more self-sufficient compared with other agencies nationwide, but it also made them vulnerable to pandemic-related disruptions. With a large share of Bay Area jobs now remote, ridership and revenues are recovering more slowly than in other major metropolitan regions. Six years post-pandemic, riders have returned to transit, but they ride less frequently.

When federal and state COVID-relief funds are exhausted at the end of this year, BART, Caltrain, Muni, and AC Transit will face annual deficits of 25% to 45% of their operating budgets. They have been preparing for this fiscal crisis by reducing costs and stretching public funds. An independent review of AC Transit, BART, Caltrain and SF Muni found that they have collectively saved $1 billion in operating expenses in the last five years through various cost-saving actions.

Some have suggested shifting federal funds for capital projects (i.e., building new transit) to fill the operations gap. However, existing funding sources would still be insufficient to meet transit’s operating needs, even under the most optimistic scenarios. The funds available pale in comparison to the deficits, and most capital funding can’t be repurposed for operations due to legal requirements. In short, transit agencies cannot reallocate funds.

Additionally, transit, particularly rail, has high fixed costs. Cutting service doesn’t yield commensurate savings. Instead, it creates a downward spiral of fewer riders and, therefore, lower revenues, highlighting the need for new revenue.

Previous attempts to explore alternative revenue sources for Bay Area transit (including Senate Bill 532 and Senate Bill 1031) lacked political support.

Prop. RTM was a regional solution developed with the state legislature, elected county officials, and other stakeholders to ensure consensus on fair revenue distribution that supports transit and benefits residents in all five counties. The legislature authorized the measure by a two-thirds vote, and a citizen signature-gathering initiative placed it on the ballot. It requires a simple majority (50% plus one vote) to pass.

Equity Impacts

As a flat sales tax, Prop. RTM is regressive, meaning it takes a larger percentage of income from low-income households. However, failing to implement this measure would trigger devastating service cuts that will land hardest on those with the fewest resources, particularly people with disabilities, older adults, youth, and people with low incomes for whom transit is not optional.

Failing to implement this measure could create significant financial burdens for Bay Area residents, particularly transit riders, who are more likely to be low-income than the general population. SPUR estimates that transit riders who shift some trips to driving due to service cuts would spend $3,280 more in fuel, tolls, and parking costs annually, and that does not include the cost of purchasing or insuring a vehicle. SPUR estimates that the cost of the measure for individuals earning up to 80% of the median income is $7 a month or $82 annually, a fraction of the increased cost of transportation if agencies are forced to cut service. Moreover, worsening traffic conditions and air quality would affect everyone, even those who do not use public transit.

Pros

Prop. RTM would prevent catastrophic service cuts to BART, Muni, Caltrain, and AC Transit, the backbone of the Bay Area’s public transit system, which carries more than 1 million trips each weekday and accounts for more than 80% of all transit trips in the region.
Maintaining robust transit services would enable people with disabilities, older adults, students, and low-income workers to get where they need to go independently, affordably, and with dignity.
A well-functioning transit system reduces car traffic and emissions, preventing gridlock and protecting climate progress.
The measure emphasizes financial accountability and requires transit agencies to implement further efficiencies and cost controls to align expenses with available resources.
It would provide meaningful resources to strengthen regional coordination of schedules and fares and make it easier for more people to use transit.
It would provide significant funding in San Mateo and Santa Clara County for investments in local transit and transportation improvements.
By supporting regional mobility, the measure would help ensure the Bay Area remains economically competitive and that residents have access to opportunity.

Con

The measure would impose a new tax.

Source (https://www.spur.org/voter-guide/2026-11/ba-prop-rtm-regional-transit-sales-tax)